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Ethiopia after Meles (ICG)
International Crisis Group (New Report) (Full Report, PDF)
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The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years will have profound national and regional consequences. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression to quell growing dissent. His successor will lead a weaker regime that struggles to manage increasing unrest unless it truly implements ethnic federalism and institutes fundamental governance reform. The international community should seek to influence the transition actively because it has a major interest in the country’s stability.
Despite his authoritarianism and poor human rights records, Meles became an important asset to the international community, a staunch Western ally in counter-terrorism efforts in the region and a valued development partner for Western and emerging powers. In consequence, Ethiopia has become the biggest aid recipient in Africa, though Meles’s government was only able to partially stabilise either the country or region.
Ethiopia’s political system and society have grown increasingly unstable largely because the TPLF has become increasingly repressive, while failing to implement the policy of ethnic federalism it devised over twenty years ago to accommodate the land’s varied ethnic identities. The result has been greater political centralisation, with concomitant ethnicisation of grievances. The closure of political space has removed any legitimate means for people to channel those grievances. The government has encroached on social expression and curbed journalists, non-governmental organisations and religious freedoms. The cumulative effect is growing popular discontent, as well as radicalisation along religious and ethnic lines. Meles adroitly navigated a number of internal crises and kept TPLF factions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed.
The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Given the opacity of the inner workings of the government and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a more influential security apparatus and endangered internal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an internationally-brokered process. The weakened Tigrayan elite, confronted with the nation’s ethnic and religious cleavages, will be forced to rely on greater repression if it is to maintain power and control over other ethnic elites. Ethno-religious divisions and social unrest are likely to present genuine threats to the state’s long-term stability and cohesion.
The regional implications will be enormous. Increasing internal instability could threaten the viability of Ethiopia’s military interventions in Somalia and Sudan, exacerbate tensions with Eritrea, and, more broadly, put in question its role as the West’s key regional counter-terrorism ally. Should religious or ethnic radicalisation grow, it could well spill across borders and link with other armed radical Islamic groups.
The international community, particularly Ethiopia’s core allies, the U.S., UK and European Union (EU), should accordingly seek to play a significant role in preparing for and shaping the transition, by:
•tying political, military and development assistance to the opening of political space and an end to repressive measures;
•encouraging the post-Meles leadership to produce a clear roadmap, including transparent mechanisms within the TPLF and the EPRDF for apportioning the party and Front power Meles held and within parliament to lead to an all-inclusive, peaceful transition, resulting in free and fair elections within a fixed time; and
•helping to revive the political opposition’s ability to represent its constituencies, in both Ethiopia and the diaspora.
Nairobi/Brussels, 22 August 2012
Ato Bereket semon had to go cesarean section .He is unable to wait until September.
I am not able to read full report of the above ICG report; when I tried to open the PDF file it is telling me I don’t have permession to open this file; what is going on, could you please let us read the whole report.
Thank you
Dear Abebe Gelaw,
thank you for effort in informing us.
I read the ICG article. I was expecting a bit of detail from them. They did not say about what their finding is about when and how Meles died.
Should we expect full report later or what?
Thanks
The ethnic federalism was not an answer to economic and political / administrative system that Ethiopia needed for the new nation-building strategy. Meles created it to prolong his dictatorial rule for however long period he wished to stay in power. So, the system was meant to fail. During Meles Ethiopia has enough experiences with ethnic federalism, and after Meles the quest for suitable political and economic model will continue. The infatuation of the remaining TPLF pack with ethnic federalism will evaporate as the rise of other parties become stronger not only in voices, but also in actions. The division that is already taking place among the top cadres of TPLF is showing windows of opportunities for ever ready political parties of the opposition. Thus, changes will invent leaders even if there are no leaders to bring changes. Ethiopians do not need leaders they lead, but leaders who can lead the country. TPLF will be led but will not lead. That means in the coming weeks we will see new political developments. This time Melee way or any other way if at all TPLF can come with any will not work. Change is imminent and Ethiopia has Agents of Changes it needs.
ይህንን ምስጢር እንዲፈቱ ተጋብዘዋል.
አቡነ ጳውሎስ, ዳግማዊ ምኒልክ በተወለዱበት ዕለት, በዕለተ ብሥራተ ገብርኤል, ነሓሴ 10 አረፉ.
መለስ ዜናዊ, ግርማዊ ቀዳማዊ ኃይለሥላሴ በሞቱበት ዕለት, በዕለተ መድሓኒያለም, ነሓሴ 27 ይቀበራል.
በምኒልክ ልደትና በኃይለ ሥላሴ ዕረፍት መሓል 130 ዓምታት ይቆጠራሉ, ነሓሴንም ይጋራሉ.
*PS – መለስና አቡነ ጳውሎስ የሚወክሉት ወያኔን ሲሆን, ወያኔ ማለት ደግሞ የምኒልክን አገር, የምኒልክን አንጡራ ንብረት የሆነችውን ኢትዮጵያን, በክልል ሸላልቶ, ለሸለታቸው የመገንጠል መብት የለገሰ የቴዎድሮስ, የምኒልክ, የኃይለ ሥላሴ ግልባጭ መሆኑን አንዘንጋ.
He has done mistakes like any other leaders, but on the balance he has done a lot of things that time will never erase. But have you seen Tamagne and Ababa,masai,andargachw;sisai;brhanu;& followers. How far can they go to bring change to their country? they are the best to blah blah blah and blah. ke mengistu bullet and sanja yeterfu midre zikach atela hula asking donation via ESat and have a comfortable life at the expense of dispora tax payers. I wish their followers wake up and stop donating them. For tamagne and his follwoers, how can I post the comments of my country people how their hearts are broken like have never seen a death before??? Tamagne and all of you please go to google and search the news and listen to the heart felt sorrow of the poor countrys people. Tamagne & followers can you please erect an irrigation or start a school or dig water in some countryside from the donation you get via esat donation
Dear Abebe Gelaw,you brought an outstanding cause for eliminating the entire Wayane-Eprdf by applying rule of law.!
TPLF wants to destroy Ethiopia with hateres and ugly racism administration. Yes indeed, they must go by any means for the sake of united Ethiopia . All the infrastructure of TPLF will vanish very soon that is divide and concurred . Again we the people of Ethiopian American sending several million US fund transferring every year to support our family as well our united states government transfer a Billion Dollar per year. Unfortunatley , the TPLF belief the Chaina administration and transfer all gross domestic products such as,: Our Coffee and oil seeds to chain. In another words, TPLF going to chaina lead by Seium Mesfin TPLF and Secret member of Marxist-Leninist People Of Tigray.
This is how the Wayane manipulates USA verses Chaina.
Meles is not the only person has to go, the whole Wayane Group must eliminate.
Thank you.
Ammanuel.
By the way I have great respect to my hero Zeg Fanta comments and contribute to Addis Voice.
Time to change ETHIOPIAN please LIKE this page!! We can change Ethiopia if we all connect in one group, lets connect in one group. Tell you friend to connect and join us for changes. Please open the link and LIKE it
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Abebe tebarek ye lijochi abat yadregh lela min yibalal ante ye weyane cancer legna le Ethiopyawiyan degmo medhanit nehna!!!!!!!